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Thursday, March 13, 2014

Free Agency vs The Draft: Which is the more effective method for rebuilding?

Sometimes, you just need a fresh start. The same goes for NBA teams. Sometimes you just need to blow your entire team up because you're just not competing with a team like that. But how? Many teams would tell you that's the stupidest question they've ever heard and that you obviously rebuild through the draft. But some teams might tell you that they prefer free agency or trading for big names. Let's see what happens when we put them to the test?
NOTE: These are present day stats, so a team like the 2010 Lakers who won the title are ineligible
*Before I begin, there are some teams that deserve an incomplete grade because they're rebuilding process hasn't finished yet: Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, Charlotte Bobcats, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic, Boston Celtics*

The In-Betweens: Teams that are a mix between drafted players and signed/traded for players
Los Angelas Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Pelicans, Denver Nuggets

The in-betweens yield mixed results. You have title contenders like the Clippers and the Warriors, decent success stories like Toronto and Memphis, and middle-of-the-pack playoff teams such as Dallas and Atlanta, and only 2 cellar-dwellers in New Orleans and Denver. I don't mind this strategy, because it combines the best of both worlds, and according to this season, it's a pretty low-risk route to take.

And now for the main event:

The ultimate drafted success story. The Spurs are a drafted dynasty
The "Draft" Teams - Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Chicago Bulls, Sacramento Kings, Cleveland Cavaliers, Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers, Minnesotta Timberwolves
The "Big Money" Teams - Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks, Phoenix Suns, L.A. Lakers, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets



COMPARISON:

Ratio: Current playoff teams to non-playoff teams.
"Draft" Teams: 3:2
"Big Money" Teams: 1:1 [Phoenix would be the West's 9th seed]
Winner: "Draft" Teams

Ratio: Legitimate Title Contenders to pedestrian playoff teams
"Draft" Teams: 1:1
"Big Money" Teams: 2:1
Money makes the world go 'round. It also buys LeBron and Chris Bosh
Winner: "Big Money" Teams

All Star Players:
"Draft" Teams: 9
"Big Money" Teams: 7
Winner: "Draft" Teams

Titles with current basic roster construction:
"Draft" Teams: 4 [San Antonio]
"Big Money" Teams: 5 [2 Miami, 2 L.A.]
Winner: "Big Money" Teams

Ratio: Teams with bright futures, to those who have climaxed, to teams that have gloomy futures
"Draft" Teams: 4:2:3
"Big Money" Teams: 2:1:3
TIE

Last 10 NBA Champions, Drafted or Bought?
2003-04 Detroit Pistons: DRAFTED
2004-05 San Antonio: DRAFTED
2005-06 Mimi Heat: In-Between [Wade and Shaq]
2006-07 San Antonio: DRAFTED
2007-08 Boston Celtics: BOUGHT
2008-09 Los Angeles: BOUGHT
2009-10 Los Angeles: BOUGHT
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks: In-Between
2011-12 Miami Heat: BOUGHT
2012-13 Miami Heat: BOUGHT
Winner: "Big Money" Teams

Final Analysis:

Drafting a team is the safer route when it comes to rebuilding and it is the road more-traveled. But does that make it the right one? A drafted team is more likely team to make the playoffs, but a bought team is more likely to win it all. And don't discount the in-betweeners. Although they've only won a fifth of the 10 last titles, sometimes it takes balance to win it all. If you're a risky, insecure GM, then buy a team. On the other hand if you like to pay things safe, and you're confident in your staff, draft a team. The best thing about drafting a team: If you do strike gold, they'll be around a long time, whereas even if you hit it big in free-agency, your reign may be short-lived.

Thanks for reading, hope you enjoyed it. Please comment thoughts and suggestions below

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